Statistical Tropical Cyclone Motion Forecasting System for the Gulf of Mexico

摘要

This report describes the development of a statistical (climatology and persistence) model for the prediction of tropical cyclone motion over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The system complements an existing statistical model (CLIPER - CLImatology and PERsistence), which is currently in operation at the National Hurricane Center but which does not perform well over this region of the Gulf. Because of the small size of the region and the high dissipation rate of cyclones making landfall in Mexico, problems relating to the changing statistical properties of the developmental data arise. Three different sets of developmental data and their advantages and disadvantages are discussed.