Analytical Method for Predicting Postwildfire Peak Discharges.

摘要

This report presents an analytical method for predicting postwildfire peak discharge for the first and second years after a wildfire; the method can be used by land and emergency managers for postwildfire assessment and response planning. It is based on natural pairs of rainstorm characteristics and peak discharges measured in 19 mountainous basins burned by wildfire that are located in various rainfall regimes in five western states (California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and South Dakota). The analytical method can be used to predict postwildfire peak discharges after any wildfire. In this report, predictions made by using this analytical method are compared with predictions made by using the curve-number method for five basins burned by the 2010 Fourmile Canyon fire near Boulder, Colo. These five basins and others were of special concern to the National Weather Service; the Urban Drainage and Flood Control District (Denver, Colo.); Boulder County, Colo.; and the City of Boulder, Colo., because of the potential for extreme flooding, debris flow, and loss of life.