Computer Simulation of the Probability That Endangered Whales Will Interact with Oil Spills

摘要

A numerical model system was developed to assess quantitatively the probability that endangered bowhead and gray whales will encounter spilled oil in Alaskan waters. Bowhead and gray whale migration and diving-surfacing models, and an oil spill trajectory model comprise the system. The migration models were developed from conceptual considerations, then calibrated with and tested against observations. The movement of a whale point is governed by a random walk algorithm which stochastically follows a migratory pathway. The oil spill model, developed under a series of other contracts, accounts for transport and spreading behavior in open water and in the presence of sea ice. Historical wind records and heavy, normal, or light ice cover data sets are selected at random to provide stochastic oil spill scenarios for whale-oil interaction simulations.