Dunn-Nokota Methanol Project, Dunn County, North Dakota. Volume III. Market Analysis

摘要

The major objective of this market analysis study was to identify and quantify the markets that could use the methanol produced from the Dunn-Nokota project if it were reliably available at competitive prices. Analysis of the traditional chemical markets for methanol indicated that the large quantities of methanol to be produced could not be totally marketed to the chemical industry. Only a small portion of the plant's output will most likely move into this market. Thus, other markets had to be investigated for potential use of methanol. Since methanol is an excellent liquid fuel, the fuel markets became the logical focus for these investigations. The analysis of the fuel markets indicated that methanol could generally be used to replace conventional hydrocarbon fuels. This would include direct substitution in gasoline and diesel engines for transportation uses, and gas turbines and boilers for utility power generation and industrial use. Methanol could also be mixed with gasoline or diesel fuel for transportation use. The premium fuel market for methanol will be as a low percentage (probably 4% to 8% by volume) blend component in unleaded gasoline. It most likely will be used as an octane enhancer, although it could be used in significant quantities as a gasoline extender should gasoline supplies become scarce. Other fuel uses will result in a significant decrease in return to Nokota. The other fuel uses considered to have a potential for methanol penetration include direct burning in gasoline engines, replacement for distillate fuel for peak power generation and industrial boiler fuel, and as a substitute or extender for diesel fuel in transit bus fleets or railroad locomotive engines. The breakeven values required before methanol would begin penetrating any of the above fuel markets have been estimated by Purvin and Gertz. (ERA citation 08:023230)