Acid Deposition: Decision Framework. Volume 1. Description of Conceptual Framework and Decision-Tree Models. Final Report

摘要

Acid precipitation and dry deposition of acid materials have emerged as an important environmental issue affecting the electric utility industry. This report presents a framework for the analysis of decisions on acid deposition. The decision framework is intended as a means of summarizing scientific information and uncertainties on the relation between emissions from electric utilities and other sources, acid deposition, and impacts on ecological systems. The methodology for implementing the framework is that of decision analysis, which provides a quantitative means of analyzing decisions under uncertainty. The decisions of interest include reductions in sulfur oxide and other emissions thought to be precursors of acid deposition, mitigation of acid deposition impacts through means such as liming of waterways and soils, and choice of strategies for research. The report first gives an overview of the decision framework and explains the decision analysis methods with a simplified caricature example. The state of scientific information and the modeling assumptions for the framework are then discussed for the three main modules of the framework: emissions and control technologies; long-range transport and chemical conversion in the atmosphere; and ecological impacts. The report then presents two versions of a decision tree model that implements the decision framework. The basic decision tree addresses decisions on emissions control and mitigation in the immediate future and a decade hence, and it includes uncertainties in the long-range transport and ecological impacts. The research emphasis decision tree addresses the effect of research funding on obtaining new information as the basis for future decisions. Illustrative data and calculations using the decision tree models are presented. (ERA citation 07:061620)