Civilian Aeronautical Futures - The Responsibly Imaginable

摘要

Since 1940 Aeronautics has had an immense impact upon Global Human lifestyles and affairs - in both the Civilian and Military arenas. During this period Long distance Train and Ship passenger transport were largely supplanted by Air Travel and Aviation assumed a dominant role in warfare. The early 1940 s to the mid 1970 s was a particularly productive period in terms of Aeronautical Technology. What is interesting is that, since the mid 1970 s, the rate of Aeronautical Technological Progress has been far slower, the basic technology in nearly all of our current Aero Systems dates from the mid 70 s or earlier. This is especially true in terms of Configuration Aerodynamics, Aeronautics appears to have 'settled' on the 707, double delta and rotary wing as the approach of choice for Subsonic long haul, supersonic cruise and VTOL respectively. Obviously there have been variants and some niche digression from this/these but in the main Aeronautics, particularly civilian Aeronautics, has become a self-professed 'mature' Increasingly 'Commodity', Industry. The Industry is far along an existing/deployed technology curve and focused, now for decades, on incremental/evolutionary change - largely Appliers vs. developers of technology. This is, of course, in sharp contrast to the situation in the early-to-later 20th century where Aeronautics was viewed as A Major Technological Engine, much the way IT/Bio/Nano/Energetics/Quantum Technologies are viewed today. A search for Visionary Aeronautical 'Futures' papers/projections indicates a decided dearth thereof over the last 20 plus years compared to the previous quarter Century. Aeronautics is part of Aerospace and Aerospace (including Aeronautics) has seen major cutbacks over the last decades. Some numbers for the U.S. Aerospace Industry serve as examples. Order of 600,000 jobs lost, with some 180,000 more on the block over the next 10 years. Approximately 25% of the Aerospace workforce is eligible to retire and the average Engineer age is in the mid-50 s. Firms such as Microsoft, Intel and Walmart are individually capitalized at a factor of 4 or more than the Aerospace industry as a whole. Aerospace Research levels are in the less than 5% range in terms of overall U.S. Research Investments.