Monsoons: AMIP simulations of the 1987 and 1988 drought and flood regimes

摘要

The simulation of monsoons, in particular the Indian summer monsoon, has proven to be a critical test of a general circulation models ability to simulate tropical climate and variability (Simulation of Monsoon Variability, WCRP-68, 1992). In an effort to better understand the necessary conditions for the simulation of a phenomenologically correct Indian Monsoon, we present analyses of simulations associated with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project, a coordinated effort to simulate the 1979--88 decade using standardized boundary conditions with approximately 30 atmospheric general circulation models. Diagnostics, such as those performed under the auspices of the Monsoon Numerical Experimentation Group have been evaluated to address questions regarding the predictability of monsoon extremes. Particular attention has been devoted to the 1987 and 1988 Indian monsoon drought and flood regimes associated with El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific.