Causes, devastations and extents of 2004 flood in Bangladesh comparingwith the historical major floods in 1987, 1988 and 1998

摘要

The occurrence of floods in Bangladesh is as old as its history but over the past half century theproblem has aggravated and become one of the main concerns for most people.In Central Bangladesh, theGanges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna Rivers come together to form the largest river delta in the world.When the monsoonis stronger than usual, the entire area becomes a vast floodplain.This yields devastating results.In 2004also the country has experienced a devastating flood in July – August like the past affecting 38% area of thecountry.One should not see this year's flood in isolation from the past floods.National and international expertsconducted extensive research on floods in Bangladesh after the 1987, 1988 and 1998 floods and several theorieshave been developed about their causes.There are two types of floods which occur in Bangladesh: annual floods that inundate up to 20% of the landarea; and low frequency floods of high magnitude that inundate more than 35% of the area.While the annual floodsare essential and desirable for overall growth of the Bangladesh delta and the economy, the major floods suchas those occurred in 1987, 1988, 1998 and 2004 are destructive and cause serious threat to lives and economy.Preliminary estimates suggest that the flood of 2004 have adversely affected 34 million people, many ofwhom have been rendered homeless.Homes were damaged or washed away, assets were destroyed and cattleand small livestock were lost.Government estimates that 716 lives have been lost and about 1.7 million people,including children, have taken refuge in shelters set up in schools and other public buildings.Acute respiratoryinfections, diarrhea, dysentery, and typhoid have affected many of the flood-affected people.As reported the flood will seriously affect the economy due to damaged infrastructure, reducing growth andupsetting the macroeconomic balances.The original GDP growth projection for FY2005 was 6%.With theflood, GDP growth for FY2005 is estimated to decline to 4.8% from 5.5% in FY2004, mainly due to the negativeimpact on production in both the agriculture and industry sectors.This paper deals in analysing the possible underlying causes of 2004 unusual flood in Bangladesh in light ofhydrodynamic processes and presenting a comparison of the causes, devastations and extent with the majorfloods in 1987, 1988 and 1998.