Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis for Two-Phase Flow in the Vicinity of the Repository in the 1996 Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Disturbed Conditions;Reliability Engineering and System Safety (Special Journal Issue)

摘要

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained in the 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) are presented for two-phase flow in the vicinity of the repository under disturbed conditions resulting from drilling intrusions. Techniques base don Latin hypercube sampling, examination of scatterplots, stepwise regression analysis, partial correlation analysis and rank transformations are used to investigate brine inflow, gas generation, repository pressure, brine saturation, and brine and gas outflow. Of the variables under study, repository pressure and brine flow from the repository to the Culebra Dolomite are potentially the most important in PA for the WIPP. Subsequent to a drilling intrusion, repository pressure was dominated by borehole permeability and generally below the level (i.e., 8 MPa) that could potentially produce spallings and direct brine releases. Brine flow from the repository to the Culebra Dolomite tended to be small or nonexistent, with its occurrence and size also dominated by borehole permeability.