Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for two-phase flow in the vicinity of the repository in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste isolation pilot Plant: undisturbed conditions.

摘要

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant are presented for two-phase flow in the vicinity of the repository under undisturbed conditions. Techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, examina- tion of scatter plots, stepwise regression analysis, partial correlation analysis and rank transformations are sued to investigate brine in flow, gas generation, repository pressure, brine saturation, and brine and gas outflow. Of the variables under study, repository pressure is potentially the most important due to its influence on spallings and direct brine releases, with the uncertainty in its value being dominated by the extent to which the microbial degradation of cellulose takes place, the rate at which the corrosion of steel takes place, and the amount of brine that drains from the surrounding disturbed rock zone into the repository.