The Application of Reliability-Based Design Factors In Stress Corrosion Cracking Evaluations

摘要

First-order reliability methodology (FORM) is used to develop reliability-based design factors for deterministic analyses of stress corrosion cracking. The basic elements of FORM as applied to structural reliability problems are reviewed and then employed specifically to stress corrosion cracking evaluations. Failure due to stress corrosion cracking is defined as crack initiation followed by crack growth to a critical depth. The stress corrosion cracking process is thus represented in terms of a crack initiation time model and a crack growth rate model, with the crack growth rate integrated from the initiation time to the time at which the crack grows to its critical depth. Both models are described by log-normal statistical distribution functions. A procedure is developed to evaluate design factors that are applied to the mean values of the crack initiation time and the crack growth rate for specified temperature and stress conditions. The design factors, which depend on the standard deviations of the statistical distributions, are related to a target reliability, which is inversely related to an acceptable probability of failure. The design factors are not fixed, but are evaluated on a case-to-case basis for each application. The use of these design factors in a deterministic analysis assures that the target reliability will be attained and the corresponding acceptable probability of failure will not be exceeded. An example problem illustrates use of this procedure.