Help to make optimal decisions from complex data

摘要

The Statistical Science Group at DOE's Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) hasbeen working the last two years to understand how decision makers in the oil and gas industry can make better decisions by understanding the uncertainties associated with complex systems and data. Under a cooperative research agreement with the Petrochemical Open Software Corporation (POSC), Pacific Operators Offshore, Inc. (POOI), and Belden & Blake Corporation, and utilizing funding from DOE's Advanced Computational Technology Initiative, the Statistical Sciences Group has been developing methods to characterize complex systems, identify and integrate diverse types of data, and make calculations to predict total system performance. Systems may be thought of as man-made (like refineries) or more natural (like reservoirs). With an understanding of how they system is likely to 'perform,' decision makers can factor that information into higher-level decisions or think about how to allocate resources to improve the performance of the system. Decision makers can also use the LANL methods to run 'what if' scenarios to see how changes in the system may affect performance.