Is a Crystal Ball Better Than a Regression Analysis. A Review and Interpretation of Energy Projections.

摘要

Several energy projections and the uses to which they were put were examined;some were old enough to allow comparisons of their predictions with subsequent events. Methods and assumptions involved in making projections are described. Two 1972projections are critically reviewed--those of the National Petroleum Council and the Department of Interior,which employ essentially the same methodology and assumptions as the earlier projections. Both studies assume that current trends in life style will remain unchanged and focus on the supply side. There is no prediction of what demand for energy actually will be,only a projection of what consumption would be if the past trends of consumption continue. The two reports arrive at similar conclusions about future levels of energy consumption. Based upon what these reveal,some conclusions are made about the ''energy crisis''. Also examined here are studies by Brookhaven National Laboratory and Lawrence Livermore Laboratory which attempted to assess the impact of new technologies on the overall supply and consumption of energy. These studies employ projections of energy consumption to assign priorities for R and D investment. (Ed. note:this report just became publicly available and,although slightly old,is felt worthy of announcement.).