Southern California Earthquake Center-SCEC1 Final Technical Report Summary Alternative Earthquake Source Characterizations for the Los Angeles Region

摘要

The objective my research has been to synthesize current understanding of the tectonics and faults of the Los Angeles Basin and surrounding region to quantify uncertainty in the characterization of earthquake sources used for geologically- and geodetically-based regional earthquake likelihood models. This work has focused on capturing epistemic uncertainty; i.e. uncertainty stemming from ignorance of the true characteristics of the active faults in the region and of the tectonic forces that drive them. In the present context, epistemic uncertainty has two components: First, the uncertainty in source geometrical and occurrence rate parameters deduced from the limited geological, geophysical and geodetic observations available; and second: uncertainties that result from fundamentally different interpretations of regional tectonic deformation and faulting. In estimating earthquake occurrence likelihoods for the Los Angeles region requires synthesis and evaluation of large amounts of data and numerous interpretations. This was accomplished primarily through a series of carefully facilitated workshops, smaller meetings involving key researchers, and email groups. The workshops and meetings were made possible by the unique logistical and financial resources available through SCEC, and proved to be extremely effective forums for the exchange and critical debate of data and interpretations that are essential in constructing fully representative source models.