Derivation of Probabilistic Damage Definitions from High Fidelity Deterministic Computations

摘要

This paper summarizes a methodology used by the Underground Analysis and Planning System (UGAPS) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) for the derivation of probabilistic damage curves for US Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM). UGAPS uses high fidelity finite element and discrete element codes on the massively parallel supercomputers to predict damage to underground structures from military interdiction scenarios. These deterministic calculations can be riddled with uncertainty, especially when intelligence, the basis for this modeling, is uncertain. The technique presented here attempts to account for this uncertainty by bounding the problem with reasonable cases and using those bounding cases as a statistical sample. Probability of damage curves are computed and represented that account for uncertainty within the sample and enable the war planner to make informed decisions. This work is flexible enough to incorporate any desired damage mechanism and can utilize the variety of finite element and discrete element codes within the national laboratory and government contractor community.