Trends Assessment Program for Social Forecasting and Policy Analysis

摘要

The development of the Trends Assessment Program (TAP) for the Office of Planning in California's Department of Benefit Payments is reviewed. Initiated in 1976, the TAP project has been conducted as a collaborative enterprise to devise an innovative approach to environmental monitoring and policy analysis. The four principal components of the TAP are its standard projects, products, information system, and control system. Standard TAP projects include policy studies, perpetual societal monitoring, and servicing of external requests. These priorities may yield any one or a combination of five standard products: immediate replies to routine requests; oral briefings and presentations; written briefs; written updates on previous reports; and background, discussion, or position papers. The control system is used to operate, evaluate, and modify the TAP. The central information system is a carefully designed information access center, with information storage playing a minor, although essential, role in the TAP. Twenty - two societal concerns monitored by the TAP are as follows: civil rights, communication, economy, education and training, employment, family, food and agriculture, government (general), government (Federal), government (State), government (local), health, housing, income and expenditures, land use, leisure and recreation, natural material resources, physical environment, population and demography, public safety, public service, and transportation. The TAP file structure is detailed, and major objectives in further development of the TAP are noted. Factors that may impede this development are identified. A list of references is included. Appendices note significant project documents, describe the TAP file structure, and provide an overview of the TAP facility.