Radiation in Relation to Mutation Rate, Mutational Damage and Human Ill-Health

摘要

The effect of radiation in increasing the frequency of gene mutations is now reasonably understood. The authors discuss first how an increase in the mutation rate is reflected in the mutational damage expressed in populations. It is shown that the mutational damage, assessed by the loss of fitness in a population or the number of eventual gene extinctions, is equal to the number of new mutations arising per generation or the mutation rate. In a population of stable size, a dose of 1 rem given to 10 exp 6 people leads to roughly 600 gene extinctions when summed over all ensuing generations if the dose is applied to only one generation; this number of extinctions will occur in each succeeding generation if the dose is given to every generation. However, the concept of genetic extinction, although quantifiable, is of limited value in assessing radiation risks since its impact on human ill-health is very speculative. In particular, no estimate can be made of the total cost of effects which are minor in each individual in which they arise, but which, because they are so minor, persist in the population for many generations. The best current estimate is for 14 to 140 obvious defects in the first few generations following exposure of 10 exp 6 people to a dose of 1 rem. (Atomindex citation 08:334864)