National Coal Utilization Assessment: Effects on Regional Coal Markets of the ''Best Available Control Technology'' Policy for Sulfur Emission

摘要

This report analyzes the effects on regional coal markets of a policy requiring the ''Best Available Control Technology'' (BACT) for sulfur emissions. Four likely BACT implementation strategies are defined and tested in a detailed model of U.S. coal markets. The study estimates the effects of BACT on regional coal production, interregional shipments, and coal utilization costs. Initially, any BACT policy will have small effects on coal markets but will substantially alter market patterns between 1985 and 1990. With or without BACT, production levels in the Northern Great Plains will remain at boom levels through about 1985. Differences in regional production shares among alternative BACT scenarios are minor in 1990 and almost negligible in 1985. Alternative BACT policies do not sifnificantly change the cost of burning high sulfur coal. Once the use of scrubbers is required, variations in the sulfur removal efficiency between 75% and 90% have minimal effects on the total cost of using coal. This helps to explain why the differences in market impacts among the four scenarios are generally insignificant. BACT policies will have two effects on coal combustion costs. In those areas where Western low sulfur coal is now used to meet NSPS, the costs of coal utilization (fuel plus control costs) will increase by 20 to 25%. In those areas where Eastern high sulfur coal is being used to meet NSPS, costs will increase by only 8 to 10%. In both cases, the increased costs will make coal-generated electrical power more expensive relative to nuclear power. This should widen the apparent cost advantage of nuclear plants in many areas. For those utility applications where coal is still a competitive fuel, the costs of power will increase by at least 2 mills/kWh. (ERA citation 03:032703)