Venture Analysis Case Study of Combined Gas and Steam Power Systems for the Generation of Utility Electric Power. Third Technical Progress Report,August 16, 1977--September 15, 1977.

摘要

The objectives of this study program are to define a logical and consistent framework of venture analysis which could be used by Government personnel to analyze a wide variety of business-related programs and then to demonstrate the use of this methodology in analyzing the potential commercialization of the gas turbine as part of combined gas and steam (COGAS) systems for the generation of utility electric power in the period through 2000. The study is being conducted in three phases:simulating the venture from the specific standpoint of the private-sector gas turbine manufactures;identifying and quantifying the social benefits which would accompany the commercialization of COGAS systems;and determining the extent of Government assistance in the form of incentives required to assure the commercial development of the system. An advanced approach is under development to handle uncertainties in the overall market estimate stemming from the diffusion analysis. In addition,an in-depth study is being made of the capital equipment requirements for production of the gas turbines,and a precise definition of pollution emission characteristics of the candidate COGAS systems has been made. A delay in the overall program performance has been encountered due to the incomplete development of the computerized diffusion analysis model. (ERA citation 03:017407)