Energy in Transition, 1985-2010. Final Report of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems, National Research Council

摘要

This exhaustive study, in assessing the roles of nuclear and alternative energy systems in the nation's energy future, focuses on the period between 1985 and 2010. Its intent is to illuminate the kinds of options the nation may wish to keep open in the future and to describe the actions, policies, and R and D programs that may be required to do so. The timing and the context of these decisions depend not only on the technical, social, and economic features of energy-supply technologies, but also on assumptions about future demand for energy and the possibilities for energy conservation through changes in consumption patterns and improved efficiency of the supply and end-use systems. The committee developed a three-tiered functional structure for the project. The first tier was CONAES itself, whose report embodies the ultimate findings, conclusions, and judgments of the study. To provide scientific and engineering data and economic analyses for the committee, a second tier of four panels was appointed by the committee to examine (1) energy demand and conservation, (2) energy supply and delivery systems, (3) risks and impacts of energy supply and use, and (4) various models of possible future energy systems and decision making. Each panel in turn established a number of resource groups - some two dozen in all - to address in detail an array of more particular matters. Briefly stated, recommended strategies are: (1) increased energy conservation; (2) expansion of the nation's balanced coal and nuclear electrical generation base; (3) retention of the breeder option; (4) stimulation of fluid energy development; and (5) immediate increase in research and development of new energy options to ensure availability over the long term. (ERA citation 05:012023)