A Macroeconometric Model to Allow Energy Policy Analysis on Changing Fuel, Specific Prices and Production Capacities

摘要

The Wharton Annual and Industrial Forecasting Model (WAIFM) was first constructed and has been in continuous use since 1970. From the outset, WAIFM contained an embedded input-output matrix but price sensitive substitution within this matrix was introduced in 1974. Since 1974, the research staff at Wharton EFA, Inc. (WEFA) has implemented various refinements to the theoretical framework underlying the price sensitive input-output relationships. WAIFM has been enhanced and expanded to provide a more powerful tool for policy analysis with particular emphasis in the energy area. The number of economic variables included in the model has grown from approximately 900 to approximately 2200. The industrial detail in WAIFM has been increased to explicitly identify all the major energy consuming and producing sectors, energy flows are modeled in both constant dollar and physical terms, and energy prices are modeled in both index and cost per physical unit terms. (ERA citation 09:014026)