Photovoltaic Market Analysis Program: Background, Model Development, Applications and Extensions

摘要

The market analysis program for photovoltaics is described and motivated. The main objective of the program is to develop tools and procedures to help guide government spending decisions associated with stimulating photovoltaic market penetration. The program has three main components: (1) theoretical analysis aimed at understanding qualitatively what general types of policies are likely to be most cost effective in stimulating PV market penetration; (2) operational model development (PV1), providing a user oriented tool to study quantitatively the relative effectiveness of specific government spending options and (3) field measurements, aimed at providing objective estimates of the parameters used in the diffusion model used in PV1. Much of this report is structured around the development and use of PV1, an interactive computer model designed to determine allocation strategies for (constrained) government spending that will best accelerate private sector adoption of PV. Existing models of solar technology diffusion are reviewed, and it is shown that they a) have not used sound diffusion principles and b) are not empirically based. The structure of the PV1 model is described and shown to address these problems. Theoretical results on optimal strategies for spending federal market development and subsidy funds are then reviewed. The validity of these results is checked by comparing them with PV1 projections of penetration and cost forecasts for fifteen government policy strategies which were simulated on the PV1 model. Extensions of the model and approach to other technologies are discussed. (ERA citation 06:033098)