Preliminary Report: Results of Computed Tracer Concentrations over Eastern China, South Korea, and Japan for 01 March to 30 May 2007 Daily Simulated Releases from Taiyuan, China

摘要

In order to prepare for a proposed long range tracer experiment in China for the spring of 2008 time period, NARAC computed hypothetical PMCH concentrations over Eastern China, South Korea and Japan for simulated releases from Taiyuan, China. Normalized 1 kg of PMCH source strength releases were made twice a day, with wind input from global forecast weather model. We used 6-hour analysis fields valid at the start of each model run, resulting in four wind fields per day. The selected domain encompassed the region of interest over eastern Asia and the Western Pacific. Screening runs were made for each day at 0000 and 1200 UTC from 01 April, 2007 through 29 May, 2007 for a total of 90 days and 180 cases. 24-hour average air concentrations were evaluated at 22 sample cities in the three regions of interest for each case. 15 sample cities were selected to help quantify modeling results for experiment objectives. Any case that resulted in model predicted air concentrations exceeding 2.0E-02 fL/L at a sample city in all three regions was then selected for a detailed model run with source times six hours before and after evaluated in addition to the case time. The detailed runs used the same wind fields and model domain, but 6-hour average air concentrations were generated and analyzed for the 15 sample cities. Each of the 180 cases were ranked subjectively, based on whether or not the model prediction indicated the possibility that a release on that date and time might achieve the long range experiment objectives. Ranks used are High, Good, Low, Poor, and Bad. Of the 180 cases run, NARAC dispersion models predicted 6 instances of High possibility, 8 cases of Good, 32 of Low, 74 of Poor, and 60 cases of Bad probability. Detailed model runs were made for all 14 High or Good probability cases, a total of only 7.8% of all analyzed. Based on the results of this study we have identified a few dates on which a release of a reasonable amount of PMCH tracer (on the order of 500 kg) might be detected in all three regions of interest. Weather patterns for the 15 cases which met experiment objectives should be studied to help identify future favorable times for the releases. Additionally, particularly bad weather patterns can also be evaluated as times for releases to be avoided.