Energy-Technology Evaluation Utilizing Linear-Programming Model

摘要

Formulation of MARKAL (for MARKet ALlocation), a time-phased linear program for each member state of the International Energy Agency to describe the potential changes in its energy system during the period 1980 to 2020, is discussed. The MARKAL model consists of a set of inequations that describe the constraints on the energy system; e.g., each energy service demand must be satisfied, the consumption of each specific fuel cannot exceed its supply, the amount of electricity that can be produced on a summer day cannot exceed the total installed capacity of electric generating plants taking into account probable unavailable capacity, the growth in capacity from one time period to the next cannot exceed a specified rate, the amount of oil that can be produced by enhanced recovery techniques cannot exceed present estimates of this potential, etc. The variables in the inequations describe for each time period the capacity of each technology that may be installed, the flow of energy through them, and the production of electricity, heat, and fuel products or energy services. There are essentially seven types of variables and fourteen principal types of inequations. The merits of such models are discussed, using as illustrations some of the results of the US case.