Modelling Energy-Economic Interactions in Developing Countries: A Linear-Programming Approach

摘要

This paper describes a new BNL energy-economic assessment model for application to energy assessments in developing countries. The short comings of previous BNL models to assess energy in developing countries are discarded. Emphasis of the new model is on a simple, comprehensive treatment of the energy sector: the enormous end-use sector detail of BESOM is discarded but, on the other hand, previously absent detail in the petroleum-product sector is added. The input-output model is directly incorporated in the Energy system LP as a set of additional constraints, as are some generic industry-process models that capture important technological options in the major energy-using industries (such as steel and cement) where fuel-substitution opportunities are significant from an overall national perspective. Finally, the major supply sectors, as well as the major energy-using industries, are modelled as capacity-expansion problems, in which explicit distinction is made between capital stock and energy flows. Objections are twofold. First, the huge data requirements preclude meaningful analysis: even if it were possible, say, to estimate non-linear cost functions (one of the putative benefits of network traversal algorithms being the ability to handle almost any functional specification) the degree of precision may be entirely spurious. Second, and more importantly, for most developing countries the notion of energy supply curves is far-fetched, since energy prices are set by planning authority, not established by market clearing equilibrium. To be sure, such models will yield that equilibrium prices should be: but these can just as easily be established from the shadow prices of a more simple linear program. (ERA citation 06:030673)