Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Oil and Gas Supply Model. Model 1. Model Summary and Methodology Description

摘要

This document describes the methods utilized in the Energy Information Administration's Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Supply Model (OCSM) to evaluate the impacts of alternative economic and policy situations on future oil and gas production from the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) regions of the Lower-48 states. The volume is organized into three chapters. In the introductory chapter, the basic analytical capabilities of the model are listed, and both the economic rationale for the model design and the basic structure of the model are described. Also, OCSM is compared to several previous models developed to evaluate OCS petroleum resources. Chapter 2 describes in more detail how the model represents the economics of the oil and gas supply process. The principal stages of activity conducted by offshore petroleum firms, the economic choices faced by firms at each of these stages, and the model's representation of this decisionmaking are described. Chapter 2 concludes with a summary of the major strengths and limitations of the OCSM approach to forecasting OCS petroleum supply. Chapter 3 describes the structure of the model, the major functions performed in each of the model's components, and the general mathematical representation of these functions. (ERA citation 08:019674)