Seismic Hazard Review for the Systematic Evaluation Program - A Use of Probability in Decision Making

摘要

This document presents the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Geosciences Branch review and recommendations with respect to earthquake ground motion considerations in the Systematic Evaluation Program (SEP) Phases I and II. It evaluates the probabilistic estimates presented in the 5 volume report entitled 'Seismic Hazard Analysis' (NUREG CR-1582) and compares and modifies them to take into account deterministic estimates. It presents the NRC's Geosciences Branch first approach to utilizing complex state-of-the-art probabilistic studies in an area where probabilistic criteria have not yet been set and where decisions for specific plants have been previously made in a non-probabilistic way.