Future Natural Gas Supply and Demand Balance. Final Report

摘要

This study assesses the future price and availability of natural gas as a boiler fuel in the United States. Analysis focuses on various forecasts for natural gas production and consumption through the year 2000. The forecasts reviewed predict that conventional lower-48 production will decline through the year 2000, but there is a wide divergence of opinion on the future availability of gas from unconventional sources of supply. Future gas prices are also uncertain, but as deregulation proceeds, the rolling-in of high cost sources of supply will diminish and gas will be priced more competitively with oil. Analysis presented in the report implies that it will be prudent to maintain the planning assumption that gas will be phased out as a boiler fuel. Gas should, however, remain attractive to utilities for a variety of specific uses. Fluctuating fuel prices may make it advantageous to use gas for short periods of time, and gas may also prove to be attractive in less price sensitive applications. (ERA citation 08:017272)