Empirical Modeling of Wind-Speed Profiles in Complex Terrain

摘要

This report begins in Section 2 with a description of field experiments that were conducted in order to determine the random nature of the wind shear coefficient, alpha , and its relation to synoptic weather categories. A description of the stochastic behavior of the synoptic weather categories over time is then provided in Section 3 using the theory of Markov chains and two years of data on synoptic weather categories. The persistence of each synoptic weather category and the manner in which transitions are made between categories are highlighted. Annual and seasonal behavior is examined in detail. In Section 4, time series models are developed for average wind speed in 15 minute intervals for the different synoptic weather categories. The approach suggested by Box and Jenkins is used in this analysis. Finally, in Section 5, techniques for estimating the power available to a wind turbine, given a known wind shear profile, are examined. Although the results are preliminary, and a considerable amount of work needs to be done, the approach does appear to give structure to the ultimate objective of providing better estimates of energy production from a WECS. (ERA citation 08:035697)