Will Planned Electric Capacity Limit Economic Growth.

摘要

In the face of strong economic and political disincentives, many electric utilities in the US are pursuing very cautious capacity expansion plans. The natural question is whether a sustained period of limited electric capacity growth can effectively inhibit potential economic growth, both in aggregate and in specific sectors of the economy. In this study, we use a significantly enhanced version of the Stanford PILOT economic model to investigate the economic consequences of an electric capacity shortfall. We developed six scenarios of future economic growth in the US, under a variety of assumptions on electric capacity growth rates and on foreign trade conditions. Analysis of scenario results suggests that a continuation of current trends in utility capacity expansion could produce a generation shortfall of about 1.1 tkWh in year 2000, relative to a scenario in which utility capacity expands to meet potential economic demand. This 27% shortfall produces a loss in economic output of about $100 billion per year by 2000. The loss in output does not extend to all economic sectors, however. Domestic production in the paper, steel, non-ferrous metals, and stone, clay, and glass sectors is reduced, while output in the trade, communications, machinery, and transportation equipment sectors is actually increased. The economic losses are most severe in scenarios with high imported oil prices or in which a political rationing scheme is used to allocate electricity shortfalls. (ERA citation 09:033485)