Relationship Between Electricity Demand and the Business Cycle, 1969-1985

摘要

This analysis examines the relationship between changes in electricity demand and changes in economic growth and concludes that there is no strong, consistent lead or lag pattern between these two variables. Weak evidence exists that changes in electricity use, in some cases, may have occurred prior to changes in economic activity, although this result was not discovered in all business cycles examined. Other factors including inventory behavior and capacity utilization may have little observable effect in delaying or accelerating electricity use. Based on a lack of compelling evidence, therefore, changes in electricity demand most likely are concurrent with changes in economic activity. Total electricity demand was noticeably affected only during the most recent business cycle. The drop in electricity use during that cycle (September 1981 through December 1985) was attributed largely to a decline in industrial electricity demand, the consequence of a severe drop in output from major electricity-intensive industries. Industrial electricity sales continue to be depressed because these cyclical industries have not yet experienced the recovery seen in other areas of the economy. Whether or not these industries do recover could affect the future electricity/GNP ratio and the nature of changes in electricity demand during business cycles. 11 figs., 10 tabs.