Western European Natural Gas Market. Effects of Import Diversification Constraints

摘要

A numerical partial equilibrium model of the Western European gas market is described. Four exporting countries (Algeria, The Netherlands, Norway and Soviet) and the six importing countries (Belgium, France, Italy, The Netherlands, UK and The Federal Republic of Germany) are included in the model. The aim of the study is primarily to provide some insight into the changes in the trade pattern and prices that would be caused by adherence to the import diversification policies recommended by the International Energy Agency. From the model calculations it is obvious that the self-imposed restrictions on Dutch natural gas exports are very important for the Western European natural gas market. The increase in Norwegian export due to import diversification constraints in West Germany is, e.g. to a large extent dependent on the Dutch export restrictions. Not unexpectedly, the results from the model calculations for the years 1990 and 2000 show that Norway's natural gas export increases when import diversification constraints are introduced in the model. In particular the limitations on German imports from the Soviet Union turn out to be important for this result. Somewhat paradoxically, total export from the Soviet Union to Western Europe increases when import constraints are introduced. Algeria, however, suffers huge losses in market share due to the constraints. 15 tables. 10 references. (ERA citation 12:047169)