Verification of Energy's Role as a Determinant of US Economic Activity

摘要

A series of single-equation dynamic regression models are constructed to test the hypotheses that both ''thermodynamic'' and economic-efficiency (t-efficiency and e-efficiency, respectively) configurations of lagged energy variables are statistically informative separately and jointly about subsequent changes in real gross national product (GNP) per capita and in unemployment rate. Separately, t-efficiency is based on quantity of energy used per unit of GNP, while e-efficiency is based on real price of tested energy variables. Used jointly, the two measure real energy cost per unit of real GNP. Tested subperiods are within the 1890-1985 period. Macroeconomic activity is found to be much less informative about energy variables that are energy variables about macroeconomic activity. One-way tests are conducted in which the informativeness of major e-efficiency (wholesale price) variables and budget-share variables about subsequent macroeconomic activity are compared to the informativeness of the e-efficiency energy variable and the combined e- and t-efficiencies energy variable respectively. The energy variables are found to represent the only major category of expenditure whose statistical tests for informativeness about subsequent macroeconomic activity result in coefficient signs that consistently imply a statistically significant negative effect on subsequent macroeconomic activity in the full 1890-1985 period. 64 refs., 14 tabs. (ERA citation 13:043270)