Methods for Cost-Benefit-Risk Analysis of Material-Account Upgrades

摘要

We have developed a cost-benefit-risk methodology for evaluating material-accounting upgrades at key measurement points in nuclear facilities. The focus of this methodology is on nuclear-material measurements and their effects on inventory differences and shipper/receiver differences. The methodology has three main components: (1) Cost. This is the easiest factor to quantify; the cost is simply the present dollar cost of the upgrade, plus incremental operating and maintenance costs discounted as appropriate. (2) Benefits. The primary benefits of improved measurement are improved inventory differences (IDs) for material balance area (MBAs), or improved shipper/receiver (S/R) differences. Not all forms of nuclear material are equally attractive targets for diversion, and the benefits for improving accountancy-system performance in MBAs containing high-grade material such as pure plutonium oxide should be greater than in those containing for example, natural uranium. Weights are proposed to make such distinctions. (3) Risk factors. Two ''risk factors'' were identified as useful to include within the cost-benefit framework: the possibility that the upgrade would not perform an anticipated and the possibility that production would be adversely affected by the upgrade. The fundamental outcome of the methodology is therefore cost-benefit ratios characterizing the proposed upgrades, with the risk factors applied as necessary to the benefits. Example illustrate the methodology's use. 10 refs., 5 figs., 9 tabs. (ERA citation 13:053345)