Techniques for Determining Probabilities of Events and Processes Affecting the Performance of Geologic Repositories. Literature Review,

摘要

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has set a probabilistic standard for the performance of geologic repositories for the disposal of radioactive waste. The EPA has not suggested ways to determine probabilities of events and processes of interest in implementing such a standard, but Appendix B of the standard states that numerical and analytical methods and expert judgment are probably all acceptable. The report treats not only geologic events and processes like fault movement, but also events and processes that arise from the relationship between human actions and geology, like drilling for resources, and some that arise from nongeologic processes that in turn affect a geologic process, like climatic change. It reviews the literature in several fields to determine whether existing probabilistic methods for predicting events and processes are adequate for implementation of the standard.