Oil Vulnerability and Intermediate Price Fluctuations: A Preliminary Assessment and Proposal.

摘要

Most of the work of oil vulnerability has focused on the implications and appropriate public and private responses to short-term oil price spikes. This report focuses on the possibility that the world oil market is inherently more prone to large intermediate price fluctuations that are often triggered by short-term disturbances. The purposes of this report are to (1) pose the question of whether large and repeated intermediate price swings are a likely outcome, given our knowledge of the world oil market, (2) address how the effectiveness of policy instruments designed to mitigate the impacts of oil vulnerability may change in a world in which large intermediate oil price fluctuations are expected, and (3) propose future research that would address in greater detail the potential for, and appropriate responses to, large intermediate price swings on the world and domestic oil markets. The report concludes that there are plausible conceptualizations under which oil prices may fluctuate over the intermediate term. It is suggested that a major focus of future work should be on how the structure of the oil market may itself change over time, causing oil prices to go up and down. The report also concludes that the implications of such price swings may be significant for both the types and quantities of mitigation measures held by the public and private sectors. Finally, it is argued that the current world oil market provides a valuable opportunity for studying how oil prices may fluctuate over the intermediate term and how US energy policies can best be structured to cope with oil vulnerability. 48 refs., 2 figs.