Break-Even Cost for Residential Photovoltaics in the United States: Key Drivers and Sensitivities

摘要

This paper examines the break-even cost for residential rooftop photovoltaic (PV) technology, defined as the point where the cost of PV-generated electricity equals the cost of electricity purchased from the grid. We examine the break-even cost for the largest 1000 utilities in the United States as of late 2008 and early 2009. Currently, the break-even cost of PV in the United States varies by more than a factor of 10 (from less than $1/Watt to over $10/Watt) despite a much smaller variation in solar resource. We also consider how the break-costs may change over time, examining a 2015 scenario and the key drivers behind break-even costs. Overall, the key drivers of the break-even cost of PV are non-technical factors, including the cost of electricity, the rate structure, and the availability of system financing, as opposed to technical parameters such as solar resource or orientation.