Simulation modeling of the probability of magmatic disruption of the potential Yucca Mountain Site.

摘要

The first phase of risk simulation modeling was completed for the probability of magmatic disruption of a potential repository at Yucca Mountain. E1, the recurrence rate of volcanic events, is modeled using bounds from active basaltic volcanic fields and midpoint estimates of E1. The cumulative probability curves for El are generated by simulation modeling using a form of a triangular distribution. The 50% estimates are about 5 to 8 (times) 10(sup 8) events yr(sup (minus)1). The simulation modeling shows that the cumulative probability distribution for E1 is more sensitive to the probability bounds then the midpoint estimates. The E2 (disruption probability) is modeled through risk simulation using a normal distribution and midpoint estimates from multiple alternative stochastic and structural models. The 50% estimate of E2 is 4.3 (times) 10(sup (minus)3) The probability of magmatic disruption of the potential Yucca Mountain site is 2.5 (times) 10(sup (minus)8) yr(sup (minus)1). This median estimate decreases to 9.6 (times) 10(sup (minus)9) yr(sup (minus)1) if E1 is modified for the structural models used to define E2. The Repository Integration Program was tested to compare releases of a simulated repository (without volcanic events) to releases from time histories which may include volcanic disruptive events. Results show that the performance modeling can be used for sensitivity studies of volcanic effects.