Extraplolatie van antropometrische gegevens (Extrapolation of AnthropometricData)

摘要

By order of the Royal Netherlands Air Force, TNO Human Factors Research Institutehas carried out a study on how to infer from anthropometric data available the expected longitudinal changes in body measures of present day high-school graduates. Longitudinal growth is determined by repeatedly measuring the body measures of the same subjects over a longer period of time and can be decomposed into two components: transversal and secondary changes. Transversal changes are the differences between body measures of different age-groups measured in a particular year (a snapshot). Secondary changes are the differences between body measures in different years for a particular age-group. Longitudinal growth of stature can be inferred sufficiently accurately from transversal and secondary changes (direct extrapolation). Most recent transversal studies show that 19.5-year old men are approximately 1.7 cm taller than 17.5-year old men (0.4 cm for women). The secondary growth of full-grown men and women is 0.16 cm per year. From these transversal and secondary changes we infer that the stature of 17.5 year old male Dutch high-school graduates (averaged across region and race) in 1995 will increase by 2.0 cm to 182.9 cm in 1997. The body-length of 17.5-year old female high-school graduates in 1995 will increase by 0.7 cm to 170.2 cm in 1997. Transversal and secondary studies on other body measures than stature do not exist in the Netherlands. The extrapolation of body measures other than body-length, therefore, can be done only through indirect extrapolation (some body measures are approximately linearly related to body length). However, the extrapolation errors are not acceptable (for example, 5-7 cm for sitting height).