Complexity, Global Politics, and National Security.

摘要

Complexity theory can be viewed as the native form for investigating the properties and behavior of the dynamics of nonlinear systems. By nonlinear systems, one means the arrangement of nature -- life and its complications, such as warfare -- in which inputs and outputs are not proportional; where the whole is not quantitatively equal to its parts, or even, qualitatively, recognizable in its constituent components; and where cause and effect are not evident. It is an environment where phenomena are unpredictable, but within bounds, self-organizing; where unpredictability frustrates conventional planning, where solution as self-organization defeats control; and where the 'bounds' are the actionable variable, requiring new ways of thinking and acting. The inquiry into the nature of nonlinearity, and the rise of Complexity theory has of necessity paralleled the development of the computer. Nonlinearity is extremely difficult to work with unless aided by the computer. The 11 contributions to this symposium were as follows: The Simple and the Complex, by Murray Gell-Mann; America in the World Today, by Zbigniew Brzezinski; Complex Systems: The Role of Interactions, by Robert Jervis; Many Damn Things Simultaneously: Complexity Theory and World Affairs, by James N. Rosenau; Complexity, Chaos, and National Security Policy: Metaphors or Tools, by Alvin M. Saperstein; The Reaction to Chaos, by Steven R. Mann; Clausewitz, Nonlinearity, and the Importance of Imagery, by Alan D. Beyerchen ;Complexity and Organization Management, by Robert R. Maxfield; Command and (Out of) Control: The Military Implications of Complexity Theory, by John F. Schmitt; Complexity Theory and Airpower: A New Paradigm for Airpower in the 21st Century, by Steven M. Rinaldi; and Chaos Theory and U.S. Military Strategy: A 'Leapfrog' Strategy for U.S. Defense Policy, by Michael J. Mazarr. A 28-page bibliography on Chaos and Complexity is included.