Empirical Method to Derive Hourly Temperature Frequencies for LocationsPossessing Only Summarized Climate Information

摘要

Prior research on the subject of surface air temperature is abundant inprofessional literature, however little attention has been paid to examining the frequency of occurrence of this parameter. A number of professional fields, such as equipment and building design, agriculture, and the military, have performed research in this area as they require knowledge of how often certain temperature thresholds are equaled or exceeded. Prior research focused on both estimating temperature frequencies at any point along the cumulative temperature frequency curve, and on estimation at fixed frequency points within the tails of the distribution. Using linear discriminant analysis with selected topographic and climatic variables, a model has been developed that assigns stations to discriminant function groups on a monthly basis that reflects commonality in their temperature frequency distributions. Discriminant functions and curve-fitting equations were generated. The model performed best for locations with low to moderate elevations; in regions with higher station densities; and during the warmer months of the year. Reduced performance correlated well with locations at high elevations; at high latitudes; in regions of lower station density; and during the colder months of the year.