CLIMATE CHANGE: Information on Limitations and Assumptions of DOE's Five-Lab Study

摘要

Human activities, primarily those related to energy production and use, are increasing the concentrations of carbon dioxide and other 'greenhouse gases' in the atmosphere. These heat-trapping gases are believed to contribute to global warming, which could lead to future climatic changes. To address the potential consequences of climate change, the United States and other countries have entered into international negotiations and agreements. In October 1997, the administration proposed stabilizing U.S. emissions of greenhouse gases at 1990 levels by no later than 2012. The most recent agreement, known as the Kyoto Protocol, was negotiated in December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan, and calls for even greater reductions in U.S. greenhouse gases. Of the six greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol, carbon dioxide is of significant concern for the United States, constituting more than 80 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 1996. Prior to the Kyoto conference, a September 1997 Dept. of Energy (DoE) study by five DOE national laboratories quantified the potential for energy- efficient and low-carbon technologies to reduce U.S. carbon emissions to 1990 levels by 2010. Among other things, the study (also known as the five-lab study) concluded that an aggressive national commitment to energy-efficient and low- carbon technologies--coupled with an increase in the price of carbon-based fuels of $50 per metric ton--could reduce carbon emissions to the levels they were in 1990, with energy savings estimated to roughly equal or exceed costs. In view of the study's potential influence on U.S. climate change policy, as requested, we are providing you with information on (1) how the study's scope and methodology may limit its usefulness, (2) key assumptions that may have influenced the study's results, (3) the study's role in the formulation of the Oct. '97 climate change proposal and the Kyoto Con.