Predicting How Close Near-Earth Asteroids Will Come to Earth in the Next Five Years Using Only Kepler's Algorithm

摘要

There are estimated to be over 150,000 near-earth asteroids in our solar system that are large enough to pose a significant threat to Earth. In order to determine which of them may be a hazard in the future, their orbits must be propagated through time. The goal of th is investigation was to see if using only Kepler's algorithm, which ignores the gravitational pull of other planets, our moon, and Jupiter, was sufficient to predict close encounters with Earth. The results were very rough, and about half of the closest approaches were near the dates of those predicted by more refined models. The distances were in general off by a magnitude often, showing that asteroid orbits must be very perturbed by other planets, particularly Jupiter, over time and these must be taken into account for a precise distance estimate. A noted correlation was that the difference in the angular distance from the I vector was very small when the asteroid and Earth were supposed to be closest. In conclusion, using Kepler's algorithm alone can narrow down intervals of time of nearest approaches, which can then be looked at using more accurate propagators.