Hashemite Survival Strategy: The Anatomy of Peace, Security and Alliance Making in Jordan

摘要

Peace, security and alliance making have all been important focuses of international relations and Middle East studies. The primary goal of this study is to address the general question about the likelihood and durability of peace with special reference to the pattern of inter-state behavior. In particular, this thesis examines the relationship between the 'change in threat perceptions in regards to regime survival' and the 'change in foreign policy' in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. More specifically, it gives special attention to the factors that determined the regime's alignment choice within the peace process. Because of the rare nature of cooperation and the accepted normality of conflict in the Middle East, it is intuitively believed that peace, perhaps as its own reward, reinforces security by reducing the degree of threats to state survival. Jordan's peace case challenges this conventional wisdom. After the peace, Jordan simply eliminated the Israeli threat, realigned solidly with the U.S., and 'balanced' the regional threats to its survival. Paradoxically, however, peace did not 'omnibalance' the internal threats. In conclusion, the Hashemite survival strategy did not bring security to the regime because of both the existing domestic political predicaments and the reality of socioeconomic problems in Jordan.