Analysis of UH-60 Blackhawk Safety Controls Using Value Focused Thinking and Monte Carlo Simulation

摘要

In the past few years, Army aviation accidents have been on the rise, due largely to increases in mission frequency and complexity, and diminishing resources. The magnitude of the resulting losses (casualties, dollars, equipment) has prompted the Commanding General of the Army Safety Center to demand a complete examination of the way safety hazards and subsequent safety controls are evaluated and selected. This project integrates value focused thinking, Monte Carlo simulation, and integer programming in response to this demand by developing and using a methodology that effectively identifies and evaluates portfolios of controls. An integer program generates portfolios of controls that maximize the reduction of hazards that contribute to Army aviation accidents. Monte Carlo simulation using the bootstrap method is used to simulate the number and types of losses resulting from accidents that occur in 100,000 UH-60 flying hours. A value model has been developed to quantify the severity of these losses. The expected performance of the portfolios of controls is calculated as the anticipated decrease in severity of losses resulting from implementation of those controls.