U.S. Policy Options for South Asia Now That the Nuclear Genie is Out of the Bottle

摘要

The world's nuclear nonproliferation aspirations for South Asia shattered when India and Pakistan both detonated nuclear devices in May 1998. For decades the United States followed policies crafted with the intent to deter these countries from advancing their nuclear weapons programs to the point of assembly and/or detonation. Current United States' policy views all nuclear proliferation as destabilizing and seeks to persuade both India and Pakistan from weaponizing or deploying nuclear weapons. This may not be achievable, nor may such aims best serve U.S. long-term interests in the region. Indian and Pakistan's nuclear weapons and the resulting deterrent effect may enhance regional stability so long as both states learn to control their arsenals. Global concerns over South Asia's nuclear programs appear to be based more on an assumed lack of sophisticated nuclear doctrine and command and control systems than concern over the weapons themselves. Regional security and U.S. interests could be advanced by developing stronger ties to both India and Pakistan, by assisting both governments tQ develop heightened control over arsenals and by using India's nuclear power as a natural counter balance to China's hegemonic designs.