China and Southeast Asia: ASEAN Makes the Best of the Inevitable (Asia- Pacific Security Studies. Volume 1, Number 4, November 2002)

摘要

Southeast Asian countries generally exhibit little fear of Chinese political or military domination. Beijing appears to have made progress in persuading the region up to now that a stronger China will 'never seek hegemony.' Given the history of China-ASEAN tensions and the natural inclination of smaller countries to fear the rise of a powerful country in their midst, the current Southeast Asian attitude toward the People's Republic of China (PRC) represents a significant success for Chinese diplomacy. Nevertheless, Southeast Asia's present inclination to accommodate China is likely contingent on two conditions that currently prevail: (1) Beijing's behavior toward the region has been nonbelligerent, and (2) U.S. presence in the region has recently increased. In the future, Southeast Asia's attitude toward China could change, and differing views about how to deal with China could divide ASEAN. Beijing has demonstrated good neighborliness through constructive diplomacy; benevolent gestures such as offering economic aid and refraining from devaluing the Chinese currency after the 1997 financial crisis; participation in multilateral fora; and declining to strongly press its claims over disputed territory in the South China Sea. In the economic realm, however, many Southeast Asians see threats as well as opportunities arising from China's rapid development and prosperity. A more prosperous China might buy more Southeast Asian exports and invest more capital there, but in the meantime China absorbs most foreign direct investment in Asia, leaving less for Southeast Asia, and poses tough competition for a wide range of Southeast Asian products. A stronger China will challenge the United States for influence in Southeast Asia, but given the desire to balance large outside countries, the region's support for an American presence will increase as well.