Lessons of Complexity and Future Warfare

摘要

Thesis: The examination of land warfare within the conceptual framework of complex adaptive system (CAS) theory and fourth generation war (4GW) theory offers a unique perspective and provides valuable insight into optimal capabilities and characteristics for the future military force. Discussion: The traditional views on military conflict have begun to change. Warfare is now best described as a clash between complex adaptive systems. Doctrinal publications are turning away from the linear Newtonian view and instead are using new science metaphors to describe the methods and conduct of war. The new science of CAS describes warfare in biological rather than mechanistic terms. Professor John H. Holland of the University of Michigan developed a universal theory for complex adaptive systems that provides the foundation for this investigation into CAS. Dr. Andrew Ilachinski at the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) provides the relevance of complex adaptive systems to land warfare in his work to model land combat as a complex adaptive system. A distillation of their work identifies the optimal capabilities and characteristics for operating within the complex adaptive system of the modern battlefield. The methods of waging warfare are changing on these modern complex battlefields. The fundamental nature of warfare has not changed, but changes in the methods and conduct of warfare appear to be shifting. A new future vision of warfare appeared this past decade in a number of books, professional journals and presentations, including an article titled 'The Changing Face of War: Into the Fourth Generation' by William S. Lind and others. The possible emergence of a new generation of warfare sparked interest in the changing trends of the modern world and their implications on the future of warfare. Emphasis in the past has always been towards large, identifiable foes with professional standing armies.