Strategic Implications of the Rise of Populism in Europe and South America

摘要

Populism has received very little attention from military planners. This is understandable. As a political phenomenon, it is viewed as somewhat removed from security concerns and hence as more legitimately within the purview of those members of the U.S. policy community who deal with political issues. Furthermore, as a dynamic, unstable, and ephemeral phenomenon within seemingly stable representative democracies, it is hard to see and hence to study. This makes trend extrapolation regarding the growth of populist movements much more difficult than for other future security challenges such as terrorism or unconventional war. In this monograph, Dr. Steve C. Ropp questions whether the enormous potential strategic consequences of a future burst of populist turbulence in Europe or South America suggest that it be more carefully studied. As Dr. Ropp indicates in his analysis, such bursts of turbulence have dramatically altered the U.S. security environment in the past, present new challenges today, and could provide even greater ones in the future. The Strategic Studies Institute is pleased to offer this monograph on populism as part of the continuing debate about the nature of the challenges and opportunities facing the United States in coming decades. The analysis contained herein should prove particularly useful to those within the security community who are concerned with the second and third order consequences of the successful spread of representative democracy in Europe and South America. It reflects information, available through March of 2005, regarding populist dynamics in these two important regions.