North Korea's Nuclear Weapons: How Soon an Arsenal

摘要

In December 2002, North Korea ended the 8-year freeze on its nuclear program by expelling international inspectors and restarting plutonium production facilities. In 2005, North Korea announced that it had nuclear weapons and that it would withdraw from the Six Party talks. It then shut down its small reactor and made preparations that some observers believe may be for a nuclear test. Before 2002, the CIA estimated that North Korea might have enough plutonium (Pu) for 1 or 2 weapons. Now, many assume that North Korea has successfully reprocessed the 8000 spent fuel rods at Yongbyon, which had previously been under seal, yielding enough Pu for 6 or 8 weapons. The Yongbyon reactor is estimated to produce plutonium for one weapon per year. Two unknown factors are the status of North Korea's uranium enrichment efforts and whether Pakistani scientist A. Q. Khan gave North Korea a weapons design, as he did to Libya. This report will be updated as needed.